I haven’t come anywhere close to going over all the applications of hypergeometric calculators in magic, but I’ve shown how useful they can be in a variety of examples; they’re really an incredible tool for both deck construction and play improvement. Now, we’re just talking about our chances to have double red on turn 3. A Guide to Hypergeometric Calculators in ... - MTG Arena Zone The chance of drawing at least 3 forests but no non-forests will be the same as drawing 3 mountains but no non-mountains, since we have the same number of sources so: 85.6%-2%-2% = 81.6%.

Population Size: Because we’ve seen our 7-card opener in this example, we subtract 7 from our population size as the opener is no longer part of the pool, so 60-7 = 53 remaining cards.

Thank you! i am sure there are other magic cards to apply it to as well, like OUaT, Elvish Rejuvenator, etc. If I have Shimmer of Possibility in my opening hand, however, I can raise the sample size above by 3 so 53/4/7 or 6 on the play/1. MTG On Curve About Github Last Updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

It’s worth noting that Opt doesn’t always look at two cards; it won’t help us as much in finding two lands as one because if we find a land with the scry, we just keep it and so we’re still only looking at one card, and that’s a pretty common occurrence. The number of successes is 4 since 4 Fires of Invention. Ads by Fandom. Using calculator to inspect the impact of number of goblin cards and Ringleader hit rates. Number of successes in sample – this is the number of cards we want that we’re hoping to draw. It’s a good way to approach deckbuilding math when done properly. I wasn’t worried; I was just hoping the person actually would have constructive criticism if I was nice to them in my response – if there really is something wrong, I really want to fix it!

If you’re keeping a one-lander with Serum Visions and your hand hinges on drawing the second land, that looks at three cards – so you would do a calculation of 53/the number of lands in your deck/4 on the play or 5 on the draw/1, for example. I have 4 draws on the draw (and 3 on the play) towards Fires and I just need 1 so X=1. With these numbers, it’s pretty clear that if I have Shimmer and my hand is reasonable apart from not having Fires, I probably should not try to mull to Fires, even if my deck can’t win without it – my chance of drawing it is lower on the draw with a new hand, and about the same on the play, but I’m just a card down. It’s not quite the 90% you tell people to aim for. I had some similar thoughts, though ultimately I think this article gets the average player about as far as they would be comfortable, from a math standpoint. There are tons of cards in magic that look at extra cards cheaply, and you can tailor the calculation to fit whichever you want. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The hypergeometric MTG calculator can describe the likelihood of any number of successes when drawing from a deck of Magic cards.

If I have a card like Shimmer of Possibility, that gives me access to three extra cards so my % rises to 68% (4×3=12+56=68%). Hypergeometric calculators let you calculate the odds and apply them in both areas.

I am now 44.3%/39.1% to find Fires on play/draw, assuming my Shimmer doesn’t hit other draw manipulation to ‘keep going’. For example, getting your last mana sources in the form of a creature or tapland is not actually going to let you cast anything that turn.

Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window), https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx, https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric. But you can get around this – pro Matt Sperling talks in this video (https://youtu.be/2eNWESTTgL4?t=455) about how he often cracks out the hypergeometric and goes over common keep/mull scenarios, and how helpful the maths is for basing his decisions.

The advantage of all this is that using this method, you can construct whatever mana bases you want, as long as you have an idea of the %s you’re aiming for. I’m sorry you feel that way. Welcome, everyone!

Generally the numbers for aggro decks will be a bit lower, since they can’t use lands well in the late game so preventing flood is paramount, and that’s why they run fewer lands. We are more than 18% more likely to hit the two lands on the draw than on the play – we definitely can’t keep the opener on the play if our 4 drops are the main reason to keep the hand as we’re only going to hit in just over 1 in 3 games, and it’s a bit sketchy even on the draw but much more likely to be a keep. I will refer to this as X, since that’s the X in all the calculations. I’ve gone ahead and entered everything but let me explain briefly – the population size is still 60 as we still have 60 cards in deck.

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This is the calculation for drawing Fires by turn 4 on the draw if my opening hand doesn’t have it, and I don’t have Shimmer or any way to look at extra cards: So in this example, there are 53 cards remaining in my deck, because I already drew 7 for my opening hand. You have to try to account for the parts that are dependent, which we can do like so: The Overall Sum = chance of drawing at least 3 lands = 85.6% – chance of drawing at least 3 mountains but no non-mountain lands – chance of drawing at least 3 forests but no non-forest lands. Currently most of the calculators only do the basics (for example the probability of drawing ur 1 drop one turn 1 is ~40%).